watersbroken

No quantum of solace

Posted in 1 by Editor on January 20, 2009

p010

This article appeared yesterday, January 19, on The Times of Malta. You may access the original at http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20090119/opinion/no-quantum-of-solace

Don’t pretend you don’t know what I am talking about. Anybody with even the most rudimentary of political antennas has intercepted signals that indicate that we are approaching a zone of severe turbulence. The Prime Minister’s disconsolate countenance – a bearing punctuated by brave but brief and, ultimately, unconvincing attempts at a smile – is one of a series of clues of varying significance and magnitude that support the conviction of many that this government may not be standing on solid ground.

The international financial crisis, its repercussion on the real economies of our principal markets for both our industrial exports and tourism, the impact of all of this on our own real economy, our broke government’s impotence in the face of this crisis, indeed its compounding of the effects of the crisis on our economy, thanks to an insane policy dictated by its pre-electoral profligacy and decades of wastefulness… these factors go some way to explain the mood of impending doom, but not all the way.

Governments are made possible by alliances: social and political alliances, by alliances of convenience and, sometimes, of conviction, by strategic and tactical alliances, by long-term and short-term alliances. Many of the alliances that this government is built on are beginning to come apart. This is sending tremors throughout the whole edifice of Lawrence Gonzi’s government. No wonder he looks worried. But this factor too – even when taken together with the economic situation – does not go all the way in explaining the growing uncertainty.

The other destabilising factor is Joseph Muscat. The magnitude of the earthquake he has unleashed within the Labour Party has been underestimated in many quarters. It has been underestimated by Dr Gonzi himself, although his move regarding the Presidency suggests that he is beginning to realise that his political survival might stand a better chance if he were to emulate Dr Muscat and unleash his own – albeit risky – earthquakes. It has been underestimated by almost all of his Cabinet. It has been underestimated by almost all of the Nationalist Party’s general staff and the Nationalist parliamentary group. Almost all. A minority has read and deciphered the signs on the wall and is biding its time. No quantum of solace for the Prime Minister in the new year.

These three elements together will bring about change. In what direction? It is too early to say. I know where I would like it to lead but I am objective enough to realise that there are thousands of other players who will do their utmost to push and pull in directions other than the one I want.

To start with, once it becomes obvious that the PN cannot win another election with Dr Gonzi at the helm, there will be attempts to replace him with a younger person. Indeed, such attempts are already underway.

Will these attempts succeed? Again, it is too early to make any serious forecasts. There are too many unknowns in the equation. Will Dr Gonzi gracefully bow out before the next election? Will Simon Busuttil accept the crown if it is offered to him? Will other young pretenders meekly accept the Busuttil solution? Will older players miss the opportunity of settling scores and etching their name in tomorrow’s history books? What about the king-maker at 25 Rue Archimedes? He will not support anyone opposed to his nomination as EU commissioner but will his support be an asset or a liability in the portfolio of the next Kap?

In any case, will Dr Gonzi’s exit – and, therefore, the end of GonziPN – save the PN? This will depend mainly on the PL’s ability to understand and implement Dr Muscat’s new approach. The statutory modifications that the extraordinary general conference has just approved were a necessary step forward but by no means a sufficient one. Dr Muscat’s “new political season” presumes a radical change of culture within and throughout the party. No mean feat. Meet me here in a fortnight and I’ll tell you why I think it can – and must – be done.

 

Mario Vella

 

Advertisements

6 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. Miranda Farrugia said, on January 20, 2009 at 7:51 pm

    Perhaps Dore’s print of the celebrated knight of the rueful countenance is going a trifle too far…

  2. Romina Carabott said, on January 20, 2009 at 7:59 pm

    Read Daphne’s hysterical reaction to your article on The Times of Malta (19/01/09). Does she actually read what she pukes on? She says the article is entitled “Quantum of Solace”, whereas the tongue-in-cheek title is “No Quantum of Solace”.

  3. Mario Mallia said, on January 21, 2009 at 10:28 am

    @ Miranda
    Well, Don Quixote was – true, “the knight of the rueful countenance” but he was also “el ingenioso hidalgo Don Quijote de la Mancha”. Moral of the tale, do not underestimate Gonzi’s ingeniosity, Joseph.

  4. Leonard Zammit Williams said, on January 21, 2009 at 3:34 pm

    Good job, Mario. Daphne’s venom confirms that you are on the right track. Keep it up.

  5. […] Konferenza Ġenerali tal-Partit. Jekk it-“terremot” ma jrendix ikunu dawk li Mario Vella qal li ssottovalutaw it-theżżiża li jkunu ħadu r-raġun. Nħallikom timmaġinaw allura min […]

  6. […] Parties on 2 February 2009 at 7:40 pm Two weeks ago Watersbroken’s editor Mario Vella wrote in the Times: To start with, once it becomes obvious that the PN cannot win another election with […]


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: